SA could be a failed state by 2030 unless we act now

OPINION - What will South Africa look like a decade from now? It is a question to ponder in light of a report that predicts South Africa will be a failed state by 2030.

The report was drawn up by Eunomix, a consultancy that works with corporates and governments.

It says our future was bleak due to the poor decisions the government made, more recently the administration of Jacob Zuma. The coronavirus pandemic has hastened the decline.

Eunomix believes that, at best, an economic recovery will be slow. At worst, South Africa will remain in a long-term recession. This means that, over time, the rich will get poor and the poor will become poorer.

For Indian South Africans, as well as those from other minority communities impacted by BEE, finding a decent paying job will become harder.

According to Eunomix, South Africa will rank 100th of 180 countries in terms of prosperity. That’s akin to living in Argentina, Bangladesh, Bosnia, Ivory Coast, Dominican Republic, Laos or Nicaragua.

Eunomix says South Africa will be one of the least safe countries to live in within the next decade. We’d rank 160th out of 180 countries around the world, putting us in the same league as the Democratic Republic of Congo, Israel, Nigeria, Pakistan, Russia, Ukraine and Venezuela.

Already, criminals act with impunity and, ever increasingly, there is a lack of respect for law and order.

Last week, a police station in Badplaas, Mpumalanga, was robbed. Three armed men apparently entered the station. They held up the five officers on duty and took their guns, ammunition and cash.

Then, a few days ago, a highly respected detective from the Western Cape was shot and killed outside his home in Cape Town. Lieutenant-Colonel Charl Kinnear was involved in several high-profile cases related to gang violence.

Like most crimes, the perpetrators remain at large. Or, when they are arrested, it seems to take years for the matter to be finalised.

The lack of respect for life was demonstrated by the attack on horses in the Eastern Cape. Angry former employees of the Fairview Race Yard attacked the animals with pangas during a protest last week. A horse died and nine others were injured.

Overall, Eunomix predicts our state will be so weak we’d be where Burundi, Ivory Coast, Kenya, Myanmar, Nigeria, Pakistan and Zimbabwe are today. That would put us among the 20 weakest states across the world by 2030.

As bleak as it might seem, hope remains. Our actions now have the potential to change our trajectory.

The government knows what needs to be done. But the government needs to find the resolve to make unpopular but necessary changes.

This week, as we reflect on our heritage, we should also spend some time thinking about our future.

If Eunomix is correct, right now we need to put more emphasis on our future than our past.

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