The impact of the Trump administration and emerging geopolitical dynamics

IN an age marked by profound political and economic upheaval, the enduring words of Charles Dickens resonate powerfully: “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.”

This duality aptly encapsulates the current geopolitical landscape, where shifts in power dynamics, particularly under the Trump administration, raise both concerns and opportunities for nations worldwide.

As we assess the evolving global stage, it is crucial to critically analyse not only the implications of Trump's vision for a new world order but also the ways it may compel other nations to recalibrate their strategies.

This period, characterised by the potential for introspective growth, also serves as a cautionary tale of the perils of unchecked ambition and inadequate governance.

The Trump administration has heralded a significant departure from traditional foreign policy, exemplified by its shifting stance on key international players, including Africa, the Arab nations, China, and the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa).

These nations, alongside recent entrants like Egypt, Iran, Ethiopia, and the United Arab Emirates, cumulatively possess a GDP estimated at approximately $28.78 trillion, comparable to that of the United States.

With a collective population of about 3.6 billion, accounting for 45% of the global demographic, this coalition represents a substantial challenge to US economic hegemony. As relations with long-standing allies like Canada and European nations are subjected to scrutiny and renegotiation, the consequences of such pivots are likely to reverberate far beyond American shores.

The ongoing shock and anger in Canada, stemming from Trump's vigorous tariff policies, exemplify the growing discontent among erstwhile allies.

A startling pronouncement from tech mogul Elon Musk adds another layer to this complex narrative. Musk recently proposed dismantling the US Agency for International Development (USAID), branding it “criminal” and “beyond repair.”

During a live discussion, he stated, “It became apparent that it’s not an apple with a worm in it; what we have is just a ball of worms. You have got to get rid of the whole thing. It is beyond repair.” His comments underscore a broader perception of a fractured governmental framework, a sentiment that could have far-reaching implications for America's global influence.

The emergence of the BRICS+ coalition signifies a dramatic shift in economic power. In terms of global trade, the US dollar plays a dominant role, with at least half of all international trade denominated in dollars, far exceeding the US share of world trade (which stands at approximately 11%).

This means that the value of global trade conducted in dollars is at least $10 trillion, approximately 35% of the US GDP. Such statistics highlight the significant economic and demographic presence of the BRICS+ bloc on the global stage and underscore the growing sentiment, echoed in Trump's rhetoric, that the world is weary of being dominated by the US.

Furthermore, the ongoing conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo serves as a poignant reminder of the complexities inherent in global resource extraction and its ramifications on international relations. Recently, the Congo’s legal actions against Apple for alleged complicity in the use of conflict minerals highlight the ethical dilemmas faced by multinational corporations operating in regions plagued by the scars of war.

Blood diamonds and minerals have long been entangled with the financing of insurgency groups, leading observers to refer to the two Congo wars from 1996 to 2003 as “Africa’s world war”, with civilian suffering on a catastrophic scale—claims of up to six million lives lost due to violence, disease, and malnutrition.

Amid these discussions, China's ascendance as a powerhouse in critical mineral refinement is unsettling for Western interests. As of now, China refines a staggering 68% of the world’s nickel, 40% of copper, 59% of lithium, and an eye-watering 73% of cobalt.

This dominance positions China uniquely within sectors poised for explosive growth—particularly electric vehicle technology and renewable energy. By 2030, projections indicate a continued tightening of China’s grip on the cobalt supply, raising alarms within the US and other Western countries.

In southern Africa, South Africa’s military involvement in the DRC further complicates the narrative. Recent incidents involving fatalities among South African soldiers during peacekeeping missions have raised significant questions about the motives behind military presence.

Allegations of the president having personal interests entangled with military strategies amidst ongoing violence provoke distrust among citizens, urging a re-evaluation of South Africa’s role as a peacekeeper in a region fraught with geopolitical complexity.

President Ramaphosa’s assertions regarding the responsibility of rebel forces draw a line in a tense diplomatic landscape, yet the subsequent denial from Rwandan officials complicates the dialogue.

To contextualise military rankings further, Rwanda holds a position ranked 108th out of 142 countries in the Global Firepower Index for 2025, while South Africa ranks decidedly higher at 40th out of 145. With the stakes raised for both internal stability and international credibility, these military assertions hold immense significance in how the global community perceives South Africa's intentions and capabilities.

As the world navigates this transformative period, the themes of power, accountability, and ethics are more crucial than ever. Nations must engage in an honest appraisal of their positions within the shifting sands of geopolitics.

The question remains: can the global community harness this turbulence to forge a new path towards equitable collaboration, or will self-interest dominate, perpetuating cycles of conflict and distrust?

This is a time for introspection and wisdom, where the words “do not get mad, get even” may guide nations towards more strategic, coordinated efforts—an era that begs for unity amidst chaos. The time for action, reflection, and reform is now, as we collectively stand at the precipice of a new epoch in international relations.