Against a chorus of appeal from several EU member states for President Volodymyr Zelensky to rethink his controversial decision, Kyiv is thus far showing no appetite for a mutually beneficial resolution. Picture: Supplied
UKRAINE’S ill-advised stoppage of the supply of Russian gas through its territory is aimed at harming the economy of Russia and the international standing of President Vladimir Putin.
Against a chorus of appeal from several EU member states for President Volodymyr Zelensky to rethink his controversial decision, Kyiv is thus far showing no appetite for a mutually beneficial resolution.
As matters stand, Ukraine is staring down the barrel of a gun with no evidence of a positive move over a deal that Russia, the EU, and the international community would rather see sealed without any further delay.
Kyiv’s move will undoubtedly trigger a global spike in the price of gas, as I indicate later. On a grand scale, the move by Kyiv that is aimed at punishing Russia would prove to be rather shortsighted in a world that has become interconnected and interdependent.
From the outset, let me nail my colours to the mast: Ukraine’s refusal to extend the gas deal signed with Russia some four years ago will bring about detrimental repercussions for the Zelensky-led administration, which needs the EU more at this juncture. Let me paraphrase my take on the issue: Ukraine is shooting itself in the foot! In Shakespearian English, I’d argue that Zelensky is “cutting his nose to spite his face”.
Now, looking at Ukraine’s ill-advised decision to no longer allow the Russian gas supply deal to the EU, Kyiv stands to lose a whopping US$1 billion (about R19bn) per annum. This much is indeed what Kyiv’s economy needs at this dire moment of the war with Moscow.
The early limitless supply of material requirements to Kyiv, including the seemingly bottomless financial pit led by Washington and Brussels, is on the verge of ending. The US President-elect Donald Trump is set to assume office shortly—on January 25, to be exact—and his views on the conflict are no secret.
Trump’s right-hand man and the new head of the Government Efficiency Division of Trump’s second administration, billionaire Elon Musk, has publicly indicated on his social media platform X (formerly Twitter) that Zelensky will no longer enjoy the preferential treatment he did under the outgoing Biden administration.
Additionally, the EU has invested way too much in backing Ukraine since the conflict started in February 2022. Not only did the EU offer massive cash injections to Kyiv, the bloc also offered strategic diplomatic cover and treated Zelensky like royalty as they created ample opportunities and offered podiums for the Ukrainian President to speak to the world.
Russia’s gas is comparatively inexpensive due to the availability of extraordinary supplies and reserves by Gazprom, Russia’s state oil company.
The geographic proximity has also added to the lower purchase price of Russia’s gas. Many EU states depend on Russia’s cheap gas in the wake of their struggling economies. Germany is a good example. Now surely, surely, Zelensky would not be allowed to scupper a deal so good and convenient for the EU, a bloc that has done so much for Kyiv?
Again, in my view, to refuse to extend the deal that favours the EU so much is tantamount to Kyiv biting the hand that feeds it. This is illogical, and I am struggling to find a good reason as to why Zelensky would choose this suicidal path on the eve of Trump’s inauguration.
I mean, the EU is itself trembling with trepidation at the looming spell of President Trump 2.0. Kyiv is well aware of Washington’s soon-to-run-dry pot of honey that has galvanised Zelensky’s administration and his depleted army in the frontlines.
Methinks Zelensky and his advisors have miscalculated in refusing to renew a deal simply so important to Europe’s economy and global food security.
Let me say this respectfully: Zelensky is but a small cog in the bigger geopolitical scheme of things. I’ve said it before, and I repeat, that the Ukraine war is the West’s proxy war against Russia. This much the Kremlin has said many a time. We are in the grip of a new Cold War, and if Kyiv takes unilateral decisions that are harmful to the EU, goodness me—that would signal the end of Europe’s hitherto unwavering support to Kyiv in a conflict Trump has vowed to end on day one of his second term of office.
The signs are certainly looking somewhat ominous for Kyiv’s decision to end the transit of Russian gas to the EU, which was effective from New Year’s Day 2025. For example, responding to the developments, the Prime Minister of Slovakia, Robert Fico, described the move as “selfish national interest” and “nonsensical geopolitical goal”.
It is easy to understand why Fico was so livid. After all, a pipeline that runs through Ukraine has been providing Russian gas to Slovakia. If Zelensky does not rescind his decision, Slovakia will “cut electricity supply to Ukraine”, Fico warned.
Across the EU, the impact of Kyiv’s halting of the Russian gas supply can already be felt. The move has led to a surge in gas prices in Europe, reportedly reaching €50 (about R966) per megawatt hour for the very first time in over a year.
I will be dumbfounded if Zelensky fails to acknowledge his miscalculation. It is not Russia that needs gas. Moscow has plenty in store. Making access to this vital commodity expensive or inaccessible will be Ukraine’s last straw that breaks the camel’s back, I promise. Watch this space.
* Abbey Makoe is founder and editor-in-chief of the Global South Media Network (gsmn.co.za). The views expressed here are his own.