By Mariam Jooma Çarikci

The collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime marks a watershed moment for the Middle East, with implications extending far beyond the borders of war-torn Syria. December 8, 2024, will be remembered as a day of monumental political and military realignment—a decisive "Ottoman slap" to entrenched regional powers.

The term "Ottoman slap" originated as a legendary combat technique symbolising overwhelming force. In a modern sense, it represents Türkiye’s strategic, transformative action that has upended the Middle Eastern balance of power.

For over 15 months, Gaza has borne witness to unspeakable atrocities: images of dead Palestinians in the streets, preyed upon by stray animals, and babies starving to death. These horrors symbolise the evil perpetuated by Israel, with backing from American and European allies. Against this backdrop, the shifting power dynamics in the Middle East offer a glimmer of hope for a more unified and just regional order.

The Fall of Assad’s Regime: A Turning Point

Bashar al-Assad’s regime fell swiftly and largely without resistance to allied Syrian opposition forces under the banner of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), reshaping the region overnight. While the West was caught off guard, analysts recognise this as part of Türkiye’s long-term strategy to reignite the Arab Spring and diminish foreign interference.

Critics argue that Türkiye offered only rhetorical support to Palestine. However, an examination of its foreign policy since the early 2000s reveals a calculated pivot toward engaging the Middle East—a stark departure from the secular policies of the Republic's earlier decades. Secular Türkiye sought NATO membership as a bulwark against Arab interests, aligning itself with the West and Israel. Yet, the innate cultural and historical ties between Türkiye and the Middle East endured.

Unlike many NATO allies, Türkiye has often defied expectations, maintaining an open-door policy with adversaries like Russia. For instance, it refused to impose sanctions on Russia and played a key role in facilitating the Ukraine-Russia grain deal, which helped to stabilise global food supplies during a critical period.

Türkiye and Qatar: Leading the Post-Assad Middle East

Türkiye consistently supported opposition to Assad, a stance rooted in the regime’s failure to deliver on promised democratic reforms. When peaceful protests in Syria were met with violent repression, a 14-year civil war ensued. Assad leveraged Kurdish armed groups like the PKK to suppress opposition while instrumentalising Kurdish civilians as pawns.

Despite this, Türkiye distinguished between the Kurdish population and armed groups like the PKK, which it has long labeled a terrorist organisation. Early in its rule, the AKP advanced Kurdish cultural recognition and democratic inclusion, gaining significant support from Kurdish civilians.

However, tensions with the PKK persisted, especially as the US supported its Syrian offshoots like the YPG. These groups, despite operating against a NATO ally, were bolstered by American funding—a move seen as undermining Türkiye’s efforts to disarm the PKK.

The new Syrian government faces a critical test: protecting Kurdish minorities while dismantling PKK-aligned networks.

Türkiye’s military presence in the Horn of Africa and northern Syria further underscores its strategic ambitions. The Turkish military base in Mogadishu, Somalia, has emerged as a crucial hub for training local forces and deterring regional instability. Similarly, Türkiye’s bases in northern Syria, established to combat PKK-linked groups, also serve as a buffer against Israeli expansion. These positions bolster Türkiye’s leverage and reinforce its role as a stabilising force in the region.

From Refugees to Leaders

Türkiye’s unprecedented hosting of nearly five million Syrian refugees demonstrates its leadership amid a global crisis. Despite unfulfilled financial pledges from the EU and UN, Türkiye provided education, housing, healthcare, and jobs to refugees—a testament to its resourcefulness and commitment, even in the face of unmet international promises. The EU pledged €6 billion under the 2016 refugee deal, of which only €4.5 billion has been disbursed, while UN appeals remain underfunded by nearly 40% annually. This has not only aided their integration but also laid the groundwork for their return to rebuild Syria.

Though Türkiye faced domestic backlash over rising fiscal pressures, the policy ultimately proved beneficial. Refugees who return to Syria bring with them skills, education, and a model of governance supported by Türkiye.

Qatar’s Role and Regional Realignment

Qatar has been pivotal in supporting Türkiye’s strategy, with its financial resources poised to rebuild Syria and consolidate regional stability. Meanwhile, Iran faces critical decisions. The election of President Pezeskhian, a Turkic-heritage leader, introduces a potential moderating influence but risks clashes with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Iran’s long-time support for Armenia against Shiite majority Azerbaijan during the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict signals a willingness to oppose Türkiye’s ambitions. Simultaneously, its deep state may continue to exert influence in Syria and Lebanon to curb Turkish expansion.

A future scenario could see Iran prioritising regional independence over bloc politics, countering Türkiye’s initiatives through soft power and alliances with non-Turkic actors. Domestically, Iranian public pressure for reform might compel greater engagement with the West and neighbouring states.

Economic Leverage Against Israel

As Israel grapples with economic turmoil, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) could recalibrate its alliances. Israel faces persistent inflation, challenges in its tech sector, and waning investor confidence, exacerbated by widespread international criticism of its Gaza policies. Updated data underscores the gravity of these economic hurdles, reflecting broader regional and global concerns.

Türkiye, poised to become a net energy exporter through its development of the Sakarya Gas fields, could further diminish Israel’s regional influence. Cooperation between Türkiye, Qatar, and Syria in energy projects underscores a new era of Middle Eastern economic and political alignment.

The fall of Assad presents opportunities and challenges for regional actors. Qatar’s financial backing, Türkiye’s strategic leadership, and potential democratic openings in Iran could forge a more unified Middle Eastern bloc.

Managing rivalries and fostering inclusive governance in Syria will be critical to sustaining this momentum. If successful, this realignment could redefine the Middle East, challenging Western hegemony and offering a path toward regional self-reliance.

* Mariam Jooma Çarikci is an independent researcher and journalist focusing on Türkiye and the Horn of Africa. She is the author of "Kurdistan: Achievable Reality or Political Mirage" (2013).

** The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of IOL or Independent Media.