Reflecting on the El Niño weather phenomenon as we approach the year's end, we take a comprehensive examination of how the El Niño weather phenomenon unfolded this year and what we can expect next year.

According to the South Africa Weather Service (Saws), the country has been in an El Niño state.

“The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in an El Niño state, and according to the latest predictions, it is expected to persist through most of the summer months. ENSO’s typical impact on Southern Africa is in favour of generally drier and warmer conditions during the spring and summer months from October to March,” said SAWS, adding that current global forecasts indicate a great deal of uncertainty for the typical drier conditions that South Africa experiences during typical El Niño seasons over the eastern parts of the country.

“Weather extremes will continue to occur from time to time during the summer season, as long as drier conditions are expected. Caution is advised at this point, as the El Niño effect might still manifest its influence in the next few months and change the outlook of the rainfall forecast for mid- and late-summer. Minimum and maximum temperatures are expected to be mostly above-normal countrywide for the forecast period.”

The weather phenomenon has propelled the planet into an extraordinary period of warmth over the preceding six months.

Recent data suggests that we stand on the brink of witnessing one of the most potent El Niño events recorded in the past 75 years.

The emergence of escalating water temperature anomalies and unusual wind patterns across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean indicates a continuation and an escalation of the extreme weather impacts associated with El Niño.

This year, various parts of the world felt the effects of heatwaves, droughts, fires in Australia, deadly floods in Kenya, and the onset of disruptive weather patterns, notably in the US.

Anticipating the unfolding events in 2024, there are discernible signs that the current El Niño may be approaching its end.

Projections from climate models indicate a likelihood that El Niño conditions will dissipate by June, ushering in a return to neutral conditions in the Pacific — neither El Niño nor its counterpart, La Niña.

The transition away from El Niño introduces an air of uncertainty, leaving scientists to grapple with questions regarding the potential persistence of neutral conditions or the emergence of La Niña. Notably, each El Niño event possesses its own unique characteristics, making accurate predictions a formidable challenge.

Even as we contemplate the eventual shift away from El Niño, its impact on global weather patterns is anticipated to last for several months.

Beyond its meteorological consequences, the current El Niño wields substantial influence over agricultural and energy landscapes. It exerts a profound impact on food prices globally, with discernible consequences evident in South Africa. The reduced crop yields of crucial commodities like mealies are a direct fallout of insufficient rainfall during El Niño events. The effects extend to beef prices, with grazing areas experiencing alterations that directly impact the cost of producing beef.

IOL