Schools reopening may have caused slower case decline in fourth wave tail end

With the reopening of schools and higher education institutions in recent weeks, the Covid-19 cases in the country have plateaued, and the Department of Health revealed they had seen a “less resilient decline in infection”.

Health minister Joe Phaahla said during a media briefing on Friday morning that results from the past two weeks had painted a “confusing picture” as there hasn’t been a steady decline of infections, but there isn’t a worrying rise of cases either.

“Instead of the curve flattening, this time, the curve has been just on a plateau with no rise and no decline in the percentage of new cases.

“Our epidemiologists believe that the stagnation in the slowing down of new infections can be linked to the opening of schools. In support of this is also an observation that over the last 14 days, we have witnessed more infections among the young people below 20 years of age,” he said.

Three provinces have seen a small increase in cases compared to last week. Cases in the Free State have increased by 20%, Gauteng by 17% and Mpumalanga by 12%.

On Thursday evening, the National Institute For Communicable Diseases (NICD) reported 3 266 new Covid-19 cases, with the majority from Gauteng with 31%, the Western Cape with 17%, and Kwa-Zulu Natal and Limpopo both at 12%.

“It is possible that increased movement after holidays, especially as schools open, is also adding to this. We, therefore, have reason to be optimistic that as schools settle down and there’s reduced movement of people, there will be faster and sustained reduction of infections,” said Phaahla.

It is expected that by the end of February, the country will drop below the 5% positivity rate, which will signal stability. However, Phaahla added that as winter approaches, they expect a potential fifth wave depending on whether a new variant of concern emerges.

[Watch Live] The Minister of @HealthZA Dr Joe Phaahla and Deputy Minister, Dr Sibongiseni Dhlomo brief media on government efforts in the fight against COVID-19 and the national vaccination rollout programme. https://t.co/r9XM3okdFf

— South African Government (@GovernmentZA) February 4, 2022

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