Energy experts have poured cold water on ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula’s “political speak” that load shedding would be over by December. Picture: Ayanda Ndamane/African News Agency (ANA)
Cape Town - Energy experts have poured cold water on ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula’s “political speak” that load shedding would be over by December, saying there was still a long way to go before power cuts could be a thing of the past.
In an interview with Power to Truth host JJ Tabane on eNCA, Mbalula boldly said: “I know from where I’m seated, from the work that is being done by government and ministers and so on that the load shedding by the end of this year should be something of the past. I can assure you that load shedding will be reversed and it will be dealt with decisively.”
The ANC is under pressure from the prospect that this could be the last months of its government as the country heads to national elections early next year.
Exacerbating its woes is that its government has failed to address the energy crisis.
South Africans are headed for a cold and dark winter as Eskom warned that it could implement stage 8 load shedding in the coming months.
Weighing in on Mbalula’s claims, Stellenbosch University, Electric and Electronic Engineering Professor Thinus Booysen said the statement was probably “political speak” as load shedding was not going away for at least between five to 10 years.
“There might be a few days in December when people are on holiday over Christmas but there is no way we are going to reverse the trend so soon.
Generation capacity takes a long time to put in place. It takes five to 10 years to construct coal-fired power stations, we need to add renewable energy but we also need the base load supplied by coal-fired power stations,” he said.
Independent energy analyst Hilton Trollip said Mbalula had no evidence to support his statement.
“He is not qualified by training or education or experience to have an opinion so he should be then saying that he got this opinion from some or other expert, he doesn't name the expert.”
On the winter outlook, he added that the country would likely experience stages 4 to 6 through most of winter but that stage 8 was almost inevitable.
“It’s an unpredictable and unreliable system. It’s also quite possible that we could go beyond seven and eight. There are many other variables and uncertainties that could come into play. In my view, what Eskom calls the worst case, is the worst best case.”
“I think they're misleading us by saying that the increased load shedding and increased stress on the system doesn't increase the chances of a national blackout.
It's highly uncertain what the chances of a national blackout are. The chances are increasing from non-existent chances, to becoming much more real because of the huge pressure on the system and what we are seeing is resistance and denial of important facts by Eskom and the government.
Those important facts particularly are around sabotage, corruption. I also see increased politicisation of the presentation by Eskom,” Trollip said.
Energy expert, Lungile Mashile added that load shedding will take up to two years to sort out through a mix of reliability maintenance, new capacity, return to service of Koeberg and 3 units at Kusile.
“I'm not sure where the December deadline by the ANC was derived from. “Stage 8 is inevitable. We've already seen glimpses since February where load shedding exceeded what was officially announced.”
“A combination of load shedding and load curtailment.”
Briefing the media on Thursday, Eskom Interim Group CEO Calib Cassiem said despite several positive developments to address Eskom’s challenges, load shedding has intensified with a devastating impact on the economy.
“The winter outlook indicates an increased risk of supply shortfall against expected demand, with our worst-case scenario indicating that load shedding could intensify to stage 8, if our interventions are not successful.”
The unavailability of Kusile units 1, 2 and 3 as well as Koeberg unit 1 has removed 3 080 MW of capacity from the power system for winter 2023. This is equivalent to 3 stages of load shedding.
According to Eskom, the outlook for the next three years shows Koeberg Unit 1, operational by September 2023.
While Kusile units 1, 2 and 3 are expected to be operational by the end of December 2023 with the temporary stack but environmental exemption was required to operate at full capacity.
Eskom said Kusile unit 5 would be synchronised to the grid by November 2023 and would provide 720MW.
Medupi Unit 4 was planned to be operational in July 2024 with the second-hand stator and the new stator to be operational in October 2025.
Cape Times